Climate change accelerating land use dynamic and its environmental and socio‐economic risks in the Himalayas

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to assess the environmental and socio‐economic impacts and risks of climate change through GIS database management system (DBMS) on land use‐informatics and climate‐informatics. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Lesser Himalaya, India in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration.Design/methodology/approachLand use‐informatics consists of land use mapping and change diction, i.e. decadal changes and annual changes. Climate‐informatics consists of climate change detection through daily, monthly and annual weather data for a period of 25 years.FindingsThe exercise revealed that oak and pine forests have decreased, respectively, by 25 percent (4.48 km2) and 3 percent (0.28 km2) thus bringing a decline of 4.76 km2 forest in the watershed during 1990 to 2010. But, due to climate change the mixed forest taking place of oak forest in certain pockets and consequently the mixed forest in the catchment increased by 18 percent (2.3 km2) during the same period which reduced the overall loss of forests in the region but its not eco‐friendly as the oak forest. Barren land increased 1.21 km2 (56 percent), riverbed increased 0.78 km2 (52 percent) and cultivated land increased about 0.63 km2 (3 percent) during the period of 1990 to 2010. Out of the total seven classes of the land use land cover, five classes (i.e. Oak, Pine, Mixed, Barren and Riverbed) are being changed dominantly due to climate change factor and anthropogenic factors plays a supporting role whereas only two classes (scrub land and agricultural land) are being changed dominantly by anthropogenic factors and climate change factors plays a supporting role. Expansion of mixed forest land brought out due to upslope shifting of existing forest species due to climate change factor only because upslope areas getting warmer than past with the rate of 9°C‐12°C/two decades. Consequently, the results concluded that the high rate of land use change accelerating several environmental problems such as high runoff, flash flood, river‐line flood and soil erosion during monsoon season and drought during non‐monsoon period. These environmental problems cause great loss to life and property and poses serious threat to the process of development with have far‐reaching economic and social consequences.Originality/valueThis study generated primary data on land use‐informatics and climate‐informatics to integrate each‐other for impact assessment and mitigation through sustainable land use as constitutes a part of a multidisciplinary project, Department of Science and Technology (D.S.T.) Government of India.