Climate, Agroecology and Socio-Economic Determinants of Food Availability from Agriculture in Bangladesh, (1948–2008)

Sanzidur Rahman

doi:10.3390/su9030354

Abstract

The paper examines the impacts of prices, resources, technology, education, public investments, climatic variables and agroecology on Food Availability (FA) from domestic agriculture in Bangladesh using a panel data of 17 regions covering a 61-year period (1948–2008) by utilising a dynamic agricultural supply response framework and Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM) estimator. Results revealed that FA has increased at the rate of 1.32% p.a. with significant regional variations. Significant regional differences exist with respect to climatic variables, resources, Green Revolution (GR) technology and education. Among the output prices, rise in the prices of rice, vegetables and pulses significantly increase FA whereas an increase in spice price significantly reduces FA. Among the input prices, a rise in labour wage significantly increases FA. FA increases significantly with an increase in GR technology expansion, as expected. Among the resources, increases in average farm size and labour stock per farm significantly increase FA, as expected. Among the climatic factors, a rise in annual minimum temperature significantly increases FA. FA is also significantly influenced by agroecological characteristics. FA is significantly higher in Karatoa floodplain and Atrai Basin but significantly lower in Ganges Tidal floodplain. Major disasters/events (i.e., the Liberation War of 1971 and 1988 flood) also significantly reduced FA, as expected. The key conclusion is that, over the past six decades, Food Availability in Bangladesh was significantly shaped by changes in climate, agrocology, output prices, resources and GR technology diffusion.

Highlights

It is assumed that the global food supply was sufficient to meet food needs of the world’s population well into this century [1], unprecedented cereal shortages and hikes in food prices worldwide have made improving food security a top priority in the development agenda [2]
Βijkxlij,t−k + ηli + ulit e=1 k=1 j where q is the crop yield and the remaining variables were defined earlier. We extend this dynamic yield response function of a single crop to aggregate yield of all food crops which is defined as food availability expressed in its energy equivalent form
food availability (FA) has increased substantially at the rate of 1.32% per year over a 61-year period in Bangladesh

Summary

Introduction

It is assumed that the global food supply was sufficient to meet food needs of the world’s population well into this century [1], unprecedented cereal shortages and hikes in food prices worldwide have made improving food security a top priority in the development agenda [2]. Estimates of the world’s undernourished people have fallen only by 216 million from 1.01 billion in 1990–1992 to 793 million in 2014–2015 [4]. Home to the largest number of undernourished people in the world, is facing serious challenges to its current and future food security [5]. The phenomenon of rising food prices with increasing food demand with inadequate supply coupled with declining investments in agricultural production and research and other infrastructure are raising serious concerns about the adequacy of food supplies in the region [6]. Msangi and Rosegrant [8] noted that South and East Asia will need to increase food production by about 70% and 30%, respectively, from year 2000 levels to keep up with demand by 2050. Food prices will increase by 20%, bringing an additional 158 million Asians into undernourishment [9]

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