Cleavage Theory and Elections in Post-Soviet Russia

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed technique for identifying links between the electoral cleavages and political divides, on the one hand, and between the electoral cleavages and factors of social stratification, on the other. The described methodology is subsequently used for studying the political and social content of the electoral cleavages in post-Soviet Russia (1993–2011). Two ‘full’ long-term electoral cleavages are detected that can be interpreted both politically and socially: (1) ‘pro-market modernists versus anti-market traditionalists’; (2) ‘authorities versus community’. The first cleavage defined the political development of the country in the 1990s, the second determined it for the period after 2000. The first cleavage has strong correlation with left-right (socioeconomic) and ‘modernist–traditionalist’ political dimensions, the second with the ‘authoritarian-democratic’ division. Both cleavages are conditioned socially first of all by urban–rural differences or, what is the same, the economic successfulness of different territories. The ‘pro-market modernists versus anti-market traditionalists’ cleavage also has a strong connection to the level of sociocultural development of the territories, the ‘authorities versus community’ cleavage to their demographic characteristics (particularly, ethnic composition).