Clean Energy - Preparing Today for Tomorrow's Challenges

Abstract

Published in Oil & Gas Executive Report, Volume 2, Number 2, 1999, pages 18-22. Imagine a damp morning during Christmas season in London. The city awakes to see streets swirling with a thick, gray mist. But this is no ordinary London fog. As the clouds roll through the streets and seep into the houses, men, women, and children are gasping for breath. Within hours, hospital emergency rooms are crammed with people complaining of stinging lungs. When the fog finally lifts 5 days later, thousands are dead. It sounds incredible doesn't it? A dooms-day scenario dreamt up by a Hollywood writer, and something that - we hope - never could happen. But, it already did, in 1952. In fact, that scene was simply the worst of the so-called "killer fogs" or "pea-soupers" that repeatedly struck London, Liverpool, and other areas of England and Wales after World War II. They were caused when warm masses of air trapped smoke and fumes, primarily generated by coal heating. The1952 fog, which killed more than 4,000 people and contributed to the subsequent deaths of another 8,000, ultimately prompted the British Parliament to pass the Clean Air Act in 1956. If the killer fog of the winter of 1952 was an environmental "wake-up" call for Britain and the West, perhaps the burning of the Indonesian rain forests in1997 and 1998 will prove to be the alarm that awakens the developing world to the importance of environmental conservation. Literally hundreds of blazes across the sprawling nation of islands contributed to a choking smoke haze that blanketed parts of Southeast Asia. The health and safety of millions of people in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, southern Thailand, and parts of the Philippines were threatened by the consequences of slash-and-burn fires aimed at clearing land. That disaster put the dilemma of the developing world into stark relief. If you have been to Beijing, Bangkok, or Mexico City recently, you know how bad air quality can get. Visibility is so poor that some days it's hard to see across the street. More importantly, public health is endangered. Like Londoners in the early 1950's, thousands of people today are dying prematurely, and the health and productivity of countless others are impaired. Now imagine these cities with more automobiles and with each person using more and more energy. This is precisely what will happen as a result of rising income levels and urbanization. The world now has almost 6 billion people. Two billion more will be added by 2025. Primary energy usage is likely to grow by more than 50% by that time as the children of the billions of people now without commercial energy services are added to electricity grids and acquire automobiles, trucks, or motorcycles.