Abstract
The purpose of this study is to classify the bid price volatility level with machine learning and parameters from bid documents as risk factors. To this end, we studied project-oriented risk factors affecting the bid price and pre-bid clarification document as the uncertainty of bid documents through preliminary research. The authors collected Caltrans’s bid summary and pre-bid clarification document from 2011–2018 as data samples. To train the classification model, the data were preprocessed to create a final dataset of 269 projects consisting of input and output parameters. The projects in which the bid inquiries were not resolved in the pre-bid clarification had higher bid averages and bid ranges than the risk-resolved projects. Besides this, regarding the two classification models with neural network (NN) algorithms, Model 2, which included the uncertainty in the bid documents as a parameter, predicted the bid average risk and bid range risk more accurately (52.5% and 72.5%, respectively) than Model 1 (26.4% and 23.3%, respectively). The accuracy of Model 2 was verified with 40 verification test datasets.
Highlights
Sustainability refers to the whole life cycle from siting to design, construction, operation, maintenance, renovation, and deconstruction [1,2]
In the bid price volatility level classification based on the model design in Section 4.2.1, Model 1 is trained without IP-7, whereas Model 2 is trained with IP-7
A classification model for the bid price volatility level was developed by analyzing the relationship between the uncertainty in bid documents and bid price based on bid data
Summary
Sustainability refers to the whole life cycle from siting to design, construction, operation, maintenance, renovation, and deconstruction [1,2]. Traditional research focused on the design and construction stages to maximize profits has gradually expanded to the entire life cycle of construction projects to realize sustainable development. Many studies on sustainability have developed remarkably around maintenance and subsequent steps. This trend has been further expanded to realize the results of many studies conducted so far [3]. Many studies have refocused on project management, which corresponds to the preceding stages in terms of sustainability [4]. The feasibility at the bid and contract phases, stipulating plans for the future, enables the completion of a sustainable project
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