Classification and mitigation of uncertainty as per the product design stages: framework and case study

Abstract

Product design undergoes various stages and each stage requires valid inputs to obtain the desired output(s). Many times, the inputs that are provided are inaccurate or uncertain. Further, the design of a new product normally starts with a limited knowledge and not properly defined targets to convert an idea or concept into a marketable product. The complex and dynamic nature of design leads to uncertainty, which makes taking the right decision critical. Thus, it is felt that there is a serious need to handle uncertainties during product design. This work analyses the sources of uncertainty that may creep in the product design process during different design stages. Besides, it also illustrates the taxonomy of uncertainty and the tools that might be used to mitigate the uncertainty during each design stage. The paper validates the approach with the help of a design example. It is felt that the designers may benefit from this work as they can identify what type of uncertainty may come upon during a particular stage of the design process, along with the tool that can be used to handle the uncertainty in an effective manner.