Abstract
The explanation for the increased world population growth rate, referred to in section 1, is commonly called the theory of the demographic transition [15,16]. In essence this theory states that the high growth rates have resulted from an increased gap between mortality and fertility rates; in turn this has been due primarily to reductions in the former. The major causes of reduced mortality rates are the development of modern medicine and public health programs, improvement in the standard of living and improved environmental sanitation. In the western world most of the reduction in the mortality rate has occured over the last 100 years and has been followed by a decline in fertility; but with a lag and not to the same extent. In the non-western nations the mortality rate decline has taken place over the last 25 years and so far only in Japan and mainland China has this been followed by a significant decline in fertility rates. In societies that suffered from high mortality rates in the recent past the existence of high fertility rates can be readily appreciated due to certain socio-cultural factors such as the need to ensure sufficient survivors to carry on the family name and responsibilities. In short, cultural attitudes appropriate to the new environmental condition of low mortality rates have not yet been developed. Therefore this theory of the demographic transition explains the persistence of high population growth rates in many countries together with higher growth rates in the developing as compared to the developed nations.
Published Version
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