Abstract
In recent decades, the emissions of air transport industry pollutants and their impact on human health attract increased focus. The continued growth of air traffic and public awareness has transformed this field into one of the most important topics of commercial aviation. In the next 20 years, the estimated global demand for air transport will grow by an average of 5%. One of the direct consequences would be the increase in emissions, affecting significantly the communities around airports. The aim of this paper is to present an econometric model forecast of pollutant emissions generated by domestic flights in Salvador Airport. This model includes a derivative study of demand until the year 2020, considering the number of flights and emissions generated in the takeoff and landing cycles. Results present a predictive model for the number of pollutant emissions.
Highlights
In recent years, the environmental effects of aviation, the impact of aircraft engines on the emission of pollutants and the consequences on health and quality of life of the residents, have become major discussion points
It was estimated that an annual economic growth of 1% would increase the number of domestic passengers by 0.744%
A conservative annual economic growth of 1% was chosen and the flight schedule of July 2015 was used for the prediction of the total number of commercial aircrafts operating annually
Summary
The environmental effects of aviation, the impact of aircraft engines on the emission of pollutants and the consequences on health and quality of life of the residents, have become major discussion points. According to [6], mobile sources, such as various fuel type engines, directly emit CO2, methane (CH4), nitrogen oxide (N2O), CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), SO2, Particulate Matter (PM), and NOx that cause or contribute to air pollution. The aim of this paper is to conduct a prediction study about the emission of pollutants at Salvador airport. The academic gain is achieved through the prediction of passenger’s demand and the estimation of the emission of pollutants by regular flights. Unlike other studies, this emission forecast is not limited to a single model of aircraft, but studies various aircraft types
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