Abstract
Analysis of demand for air transportation is a key business process around which each airline develops strategic and operational plans. Based on the demand forecast, strategic plans for development of the airline’s route network are developed, as well as budgeting, financial planning, sales and marketing plans, aircraft fleet planning, risk assessment and plans to overcome their consequences. Demand analysis also facilitates important management activities, such as decision-making, performance evaluation, and reasonable allocation of resources in specific and uncertain conditions for development of the air transport system. Based on the specific requirements of the airline or in relation to a specific airline, an individual demand forecasting model can be developed. Such a model is an extension or a combination of various qualitative and quantitative methods for forecasting demand. The task of developing a custom model is often iterative, highly detailed, and driven by expert knowledge and can be accomplished by introducing suitable demand management software. The task stated in the article is not a staging task for building a model, but only offers to study the available theoretical material for the analysis of demand for air transportation based on the most famous models for forecasting demand for transportation. The method of scientific research of the problem posed in the article is the method of scientific analysis of existing models. Offer and demand for air transport services are reciprocal but asymmetric. Although the realized demand for transportation cannot take place without an appropriate level of supply, an air transport service can exist without appropriate demand. This is often found in projects that are developed with a margin that meets the expected level of demand, which may or may not be realized, or it may take several years to be realized. Regular air transport services form a supply that exists even if demand is insufficient. Several models presented in the article emphasize the conditions in which there is supply saturation, and on the other hand, the models in which demand is formed due to the mutual attractiveness of the entities that form demand are considered.
Highlights
Анализ спроса на авиаперевозки – это ключевой бизнес-процесс, вокруг которого разрабатываются стратегические и операционные планы каждой авиакомпании
Analysis of a growth model inspired by Gompertz and Korf laws, and an analogous birth-death process
Увеличения перевозок, что, например, происходит при проведении крупных спортивных мероприятий, таких как Информатика и компьютерные технологии
Summary
Анализ спроса на авиаперевозки – это ключевой бизнес-процесс, вокруг которого разрабатываются стратегические и операционные планы каждой авиакомпании. Для анализа спроса на авиаперевоз- количество пассажирокилометров, ки можно исходить из того, что которые могут быть достигнуты; спрос на авиаперевозки между ожидаемое количество взлётнодвумя городами или двумя регионами за- посадочных операций; висит от:. В 2018 году, по данным Росстата: грузообо- При построении модели спроса следует рот транспорта в России вырос на 2,8 % учитывать, включает ли модель в себя конотносительно 2017 года и составил 5640 курентоспособные виды транспорта. Доля Оценка микроскопических моделей: автомобильного (автобусного) транспорта спрос на перевозку между двумя гов пассажирских перевозках транспортом родами; общего пользования составила 21,6 % пассажиропоток в аэропорту;. 3 .Использование кривых роста в про- практике прогнозирования, являются гнозировании социально-экономических кривая роста Гомперца и кривая роста явлений может давать достаточно хорошие Перла-Рида. В макроскопической модели спрос является функцией от социально-эконогде a; bi; cj – оценка параметров
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