City Size Distribution in China: Are Large Cities Dominant?

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of the size distribution of Chinese cities. Since the relaxation of restrictions on rural—urban migration in the 1980s, China has experienced rapid urban growth. However, cities of different sizes have experienced varying patterns of growth. First, the evolution of city size distribution in China is described by documenting the growth in city size and in the number of existing cities. Then, focusing on the period from 1990 to 2000, the urban evolutionary trend is analysed by means of the Pareto law estimation and the mobility of cities between different size groups is examined with the Markov transition matrix. The convergence hypothesis in the city population growth process is also tested. The results suggest that, contrary to the expected dominance of large city growth, the Chinese city size distribution evened out during the 1990s, with small cities growing more rapidly than large cities.