Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of China’s City Size Distribution Based on New Criteria

Abstract

The distribution and evolution of city size are critical for town layout optimization. Based on the most recent classification standards and census data for 2010 and 2020, this paper aims to explore China’s city size distribution above the prefecture level. Using the rank-size law, Kernel density estimation, Spatial Gini coefficient, and Markov transition matrix, the newest city size distribution characteristics and spatial evolution patterns in China are shown from national and regional viewpoints. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Over the period from 2010 to 2020, China’s city size distribution follows the rank-size law but deviates from Zipf’s ideal. The distribution of city size is centralized in general. (2) China’s city-size hierarchy exhibits a good “olive” structure, with fewer megacities but larger populations. The growth rate of small and medium-sized cities is higher than the number of medium-sized cities. (3) China’s cities have grown greatly in size, with more than a third of them expanding. Over the last decade, high-ranking cities have become the primary driver of change. (4) There are disparities in city size between regions. A diminishing trend can be seen in three key economic zones.