Abstract
The complexity of predicting the impact of extraordinary events in the bio-based industrial symbiosis (BBIS) emerges as the main challenge addressed in this study. Complex systems theory, value chain dynamics, and the geographic economy constitute the best available frameworks to shed light on the aim of identifying the relationship between circular economy (CE) and viable value chains in BBIS. The Bazancourt-Pomacle biorefinery was selected as the case study to be analyzed at the mesoscale via System dynamics modelling. A scenario-based approach was adopted to identify the most required conditions to implement circularity in the sugar-beet value chain in BBIS. Three scenarios have been proposed up to 2027, the baseline scenario, the second scenario that considers the non-viable value chain scenario due to climate change effects , and the third showing an outstanding implementation of CE strategies (risk mitigation; production changeover, re-design of products and by-products, capacity buffers, and responsiveness) applied to face COVID19 outbreak is the most circular among the three. Finally, the third scenario also ensures the viability of the sugar beet value chain when facing the COVID19 outbreak by triggering leagility (leanness + agility), resilience, and survivability making the shift from bioethanol to alcohol production possible and therefore maintaining the value chain functionality. • System and dynamic approaches bear off complexity integration in value chains. • Leanness, agility, resilience, and survivability compose viability features. • Transition drivers entail risk mitigation, production changeover, and responsiveness. • The system dynamics method improves circularity understanding and its viability. • Scenarios offer a decision-making and policy tool for interconnected value chains.
Published Version
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