Circadian variation in coaches’ decision-making in the National Football League’s evening games

Abstract

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to explore whether National Football League (NFL) coaches show variation in their decision-making on fourth down when traveling through time zones. Data from visiting teams in games from 20 seasons (2000–2020) of the NFL were retrieved from online sources (n = 5360 games). Decision-making was measured with the percentage of offensive plays on fourth down. A factorial ANCOVA was done to verify whether travel direction had an impact on fourth downs in evening games, while controlling for the seasons. A moderation analysis was computed to verify whether the time of game moderates the relationship between longitudinal distance traveled and decisions on fourth downs. Results showed that in evening games, coaches in teams traveling westward called more offensive plays on fourth down, compared to when they traveled in any other direction. Results from the moderation analysis showed that only in evening games, further westward longitudinal degrees traveled predict more fourth downs. For the first time, this study offers insight that circadian misalignment may not only affect player performance but also influence coaching decisions in professional sports. These results beg the question whether other aspects of coaching or staff decisions show circadian variations in professional sports.