Abstract

Previous articleNext article No AccessBeating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League GamesRichard A. Zuber, John M. Gandar, and Benny D. BowersRichard A. Zuber Search for more articles by this author , John M. Gandar Search for more articles by this author , and Benny D. Bowers Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 93, Number 4Aug., 1985 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/261332 Views: 50Total views on this site Citations: 92Citations are reported from Crossref Copyright 1985 The University of ChicagoPDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:Jeremy M. Losak, Andrew P. Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul Behavioral Biases in Daily Fantasy Baseball: The Case of the Hot Hand, Journal of Sports Economics 24, no.33 (Sep 2022): 374–401.https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025221128955Robert Arscott Market Efficiency and Censoring Bias in College Football Gambling, Journal of Sports Economics 9 (Jan 2023): 152700252211489.https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025221148991Neil Metz, Chintamani Jog High stakes, experts, and recency bias: evidence from a sports gambling contest, Applied Economics Letters 11 (Jul 2022): 1–5.https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2099517TOBIAS J. MOSKOWITZ Asset Pricing and Sports Betting, The Journal of Finance 76, no.66 (Oct 2021): 3153–3209.https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13082John R. Birge, Yifan Feng, N. Bora Keskin, Adam Schultz Dynamic Learning and Market Making in Spread Betting Markets with Informed Bettors, Operations Research 69, no.66 (Nov 2021): 1746–1766.https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2021.2109Janne Nikkinen, Virve Marionneau On the efficiency of Nordic state-controlled gambling companies, Nordic Studies on Alcohol and Drugs 38, no.33 (Dec 2020): 212–226.https://doi.org/10.1177/1455072520968024June Buchanan, Yun Shen Gambling and marketing: a systematic literature review using HistCite, Accounting & Finance 61, no.22 (Jul 2020): 2837–2851.https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12685S Manish., Vandana Bhagat, RM Pramila Prediction of Football Players Performance using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms, (May 2021): 1–5.https://doi.org/10.1109/INCET51464.2021.9456424Justin Cox, Adam L. Schwartz, Bonnie F. Van Ness, Robert A. Van Ness The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games, Journal of Sports Economics 22, no.33 (Nov 2020): 251–273.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002520975837Tobias J. Moskowitz, Kaushik Vasudevan What Can Betting Markets Tell Us About Investor Preferences and Beliefs? Implications for Low Risk Anomalies, SSRN Electronic Journal 85 (Jan 2021).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3845505Angie Andrikogiannopoulou, Filippos Papakonstantinou The Missing Link Between Home Bias and Investor Sentiment: Evidence from a Quasi-experimental Financial Market, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2020).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3701247Brian Hill Shadow and Spillover Effects of Competition in NBA Playoffs, Journal of Sports Economics 19, no.88 (Apr 2017): 1067–1092.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002517704020Daniel F. Stone, Jeremy Arkes MARCH MADNESS? UNDERREACTION TO HOT AND COLD HANDS IN NCAA BASKETBALL, Economic Inquiry 56, no.33 (Jan 2018): 1724–1747.https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12558John R. Birge, Yifan Feng, N. Bora Keskin, Adam Schultz Dynamic Learning and Market Making in Spread Betting Markets With Informed Bettors, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3283392Corey Shank NFL Betting Biases, Profitable Strategies, and the Wisdom of the Crowd, SSRN Electronic Journal 37 (Jan 2018).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3289715Harry Elkins, Austin Beane, Jake Cherkes, William Clougherty, Joseph Krohn, Henry Sellars, William T. Scherer, James Valeiras Implementing data analytics for U.Va. Football, (Apr 2017): 202–207.https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2017.7937717Justin L. Davis, Kevin Krieger Preseason bias in the NFL and NBA betting markets, Applied Economics 49, no.1212 (Aug 2016): 1204–1212.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1213367Daniel F. Stone, Jeremy Arkes March Madness? Underreaction to Hot and Cold Hands in NCAA Basketball, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2017).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2902276Joshua D. Pitts Determinants of Success in the National Football League’s Postseason, Journal of Sports Economics 17, no.11 (Mar 2014): 86–111.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002514525409Tobias J. Moskowitz Asset Pricing and Sports Betting, SSRN Electronic Journal 45 (Jan 2015).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2635517Michael Sinkey, Trevon Logan Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets, Eastern Economic Journal 40, no.44 (Oct 2013): 583–603.https://doi.org/10.1057/eej.2013.33Yoon Tae Sung, Scott Tainsky The National Football League Wagering Market, Journal of Sports Economics 15, no.44 (Nov 2012): 365–384.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002512466557Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach Market Efficiency and Behavioral Biases in the WNBA Betting Market, International Journal of Financial Studies 2, no.22 (Apr 2014): 193–202.https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs2020193Michael DiFilippo, Kevin Krieger, Justin Davis, Andy Fodor Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias, Journal of Sports Economics 15, no.22 (Aug 2012): 201–211.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002512454544Kyle J. Kain, Trevon D. Logan Are Sports Betting Markets Prediction Markets?, Journal of Sports Economics 15, no.11 (Feb 2012): 45–63.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002512437744Thomas W. Miller, David E. Rapach An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC, Journal of Empirical Finance 24 (Dec 2013): 10–23.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2013.07.002Andy Fodor, Michael DiFilippo, Kevin Krieger, Justin Davis Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets, Applied Financial Economics 23, no.1717 (Sep 2013): 1407–1418.https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.829201Rodney J. Paul, Andrew P. Weinbach Baseball, Journal of Sports Economics 14, no.22 (Apr 2013): 115–132.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002511417630Rose D. Baker, Ian G. McHale Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games, International Journal of Forecasting 29, no.11 (Jan 2013): 122–130.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.07.002N. Winchester, R. T. Stefani An innovative approach to National Football League standings using bonus points, Applied Economics 45, no.11 (Sep 2011): 123–134.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.595694Rodney J. Paul, Andrew P. Weinbach Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL, Journal of Economics and Finance 36, no.11 (Dec 2009): 123–135.https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-009-9112-4Sean Wever, David Aadland Herd behaviour and underdogs in the NFL, Applied Economics Letters 19, no.11 (Jan 2012): 93–97.https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.568384Daniel F. Stone, Basit Zafar Do We Follow Others When We Should Outside the Lab? Evidence from the AP Top 25, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2012).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1628136Rodney Paul, Robert Simmons, Andrew Weinbach Gambling and the NFL, (Dec 2011): 225–242.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-6290-4_13Gennaro Bernile, Evgeny Lyandres Understanding Investor Sentiment: The Case of Soccer, Financial Management 40, no.22 (Jun 2011): 357–380.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2011.01145.xRodney J. Paul, Andrew P. Weinbach NFL bettor biases and price setting: further tests of the Levitt hypothesis of sportsbook behaviour, Applied Economics Letters 18, no.22 (Jan 2011): 193–197.https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850903508242Thomas Ashman, R. Alan Bowman, James Lambrinos The Role of Fatigue in NBA Wagering Markets: The Surprising ??Home Disadvantage Situation??, Journal of Sports Economics 11, no.66 (Jan 2010): 602–613.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002509357545H.O. Stekler, David Sendor, Richard Verlander Issues in sports forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting 26, no.33 (Jul 2010): 606–621.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.01.003Jaiho Chung, Joon Ho Hwang An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market, Southern Economic Journal 76, no.44 (Apr 2010): 884–905.https://doi.org/10.4284/sej.2010.76.4.884Sean Wise, Milan Miric, Dave Valliere Testing the effectiveness of Semi - Predictive Markets: Are fight fans smarter than expert bookies?, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 2, no.44 (Jan 2010): 6497–6502.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2010.04.059Shekhar Aiyar, , Rodney Ramcharan, What Can International Cricket Teach Us About the Role of Luck in Labor Markets?, IMF Working Papers 10, no.225225 (Jan 2010): 1.https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455208906.001Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, Jan R. Magnus The efficiency of top agents: An analysis through service strategy in tennis, Journal of Econometrics 148, no.11 (Jan 2009): 72–85.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.09.036Shekhar Aiyar, Rodney Ramcharan What Can International Cricket Teach Us About the Role of Luck in Labor Markets?, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2009).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1478408Steven G. Sapra Evidence of Betting Market Intraseason Efficiency and Interseason Overreaction to Unexpected NFL Team Performance 1988-2006, Journal of Sports Economics 9, no.55 (Dec 2007): 488–503.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002507311726Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers Examining Explanations of a Market Anomaly: Preferences or Perceptions?, (Jan 2008): 103–136.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044450744-0.50010-XRussell S. Sobel, Matt E. Ryan Unifying the Favorite-Longshot Bias with Other Market Anomalies, (Jan 2008): 137–160.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044450744-0.50011-1William T. Ziemba Efficiency of Racing, Sports, and Lottery Betting Markets, (Jan 2008): 183–222.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044450744-0.50013-5Hal S. Stern Point Spread and Odds Betting: Baseball, Basketball, and American Football, (Jan 2008): 223–237.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044450744-0.50014-7Katherine Uylangco, Stephen Andrew Easton An Examination of Within-Match Sports Betting in Tennis Matches, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2008).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1137766R. Borghesi The late-season bias: explaining the NFL's home-underdog effect, Applied Economics 39, no.1515 (Aug 2007): 1889–1903.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600690314Ray C. Fair, John F. Oster College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency, Journal of Sports Economics 8, no.11 (Aug 2016): 3–18.https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002505276724Steven G. Sapra Evidence of Betting Market Intra-Season Efficiency and Inter-Season Over-Reaction to Unexpected NFL Team Performance 1988-2006, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2007).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1016745Bryan L. Boulier, H. O. Stekler, Sarah Amundson Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market, Applied Economics 38, no.33 (Feb 2006): 279–284.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500368904Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, J.R. Magnus Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers? An Analysis through Service Strategy in Tennis, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2006).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.907001Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, J.R. Magnus Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers?: An Analysis through Strategy in Tennis, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 2006).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.919801Leighton Vaughan Williams Semi-strong and strong form information efficiency in betting markets, (Sep 2005): 123–156.https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511493614.004Stephen Shmanske Odds-setting efficiency in gambling markets: Evidence from the PGA TOUR, Journal of Economics and Finance 29, no.33 (Sep 2005): 391–402.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02761583Steven D. Levitt Why are Gambling Markets Organised so Differently from Financial Markets?, The Economic Journal 114, no.495495 (Apr 2004): 223–246.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00207.xRodney J. Paul, Andrew P. Weinbach, J. Weinbach Fair bets and profitability in college football gambling, Journal of Economics and Finance 27, no.22 (Jun 2003): 236–242.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02827221Russell S. Sobel, S. Travis Raines An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting, Applied Economics 35, no.44 (Apr 2003): 371–385.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110111176Kenneth H. Brown, Fred J. Abraham Testing Market Efficiency in the Major League Baseball Over-Under Betting Market, Journal of Sports Economics 3, no.44 (Aug 2016): 311–319.https://doi.org/10.1177/152700250200300401Gregory W Brown, Jay C Hartzell Market reaction to public information: The atypical case of the Boston Celtics, Journal of Financial Economics 60, no.2-32-3 (May 2001): 333–370.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00047-2Linda M. Woodland, Bill M. Woodland Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?, Southern Economic Journal 67, no.44 (Apr 2001): 983–995.https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2001.tb00385.xEvan Osborne Efficient Markets? Don’t Bet on It, Journal of Sports Economics 2, no.11 (Aug 2016): 50–61.https://doi.org/10.1177/152700250100200105Michael Cain, David Law, David A Peel Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: the NFL betting market revisited, Journal of Forecasting 19, no.77 (Jan 2000): 575–586.https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-131X(200012)19:7<575::AID-FOR765>3.0.CO;2-UTim Kuypers Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market, Applied Economics 32, no.1111 (Sep 2000): 1353–1363.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840050151449William S. Mallios Modeling Concepts, (Jan 2000): 25–55.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-6713-1_3Anthony J. Onwuegbuzie Defense or Offense? Which is the Better Predictor of Success for Professional Football Teams?, Perceptual and Motor Skills 89, no.11 (Aug 2016): 151–159.https://doi.org/10.2466/pms.1999.89.1.151Roger C. Vergin, John J. Sosik No place like home: an examination of the home field advantage in gambling strategies in NFL football, Journal of Economics and Business 51, no.11 (Jan 1999): 21–31.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0148-6195(98)00025-3ANTHONY J. ONWUEGBUZIE DEFENSE OR OFFENSE? WHICH IS THE BETTER PREDICTOR OF SUCCESS FOR PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAMS?, Perceptual and Motor Skills 89, no.55 (Jan 1999): 151.https://doi.org/10.2466/PMS.89.5.151-159Mark E. Glickman, Hal S. Stern A State-Space Model for National Football League Scores, Journal of the American Statistical Association 93, no.441441 (Mar 1998): 25–35.https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1998.10474084Leighton Vaughan Williams, David Paton Does information efficiency require a perception of information inefficiency?, Applied Economics Letters 4, no.1010 (Oct 1997): 615–617.https://doi.org/10.1080/758533285David Peel, Dennis Thomas Handicaps, outcome uncertainty and attendance demand, Applied Economics Letters 4, no.99 (Sep 1997): 567–570.https://doi.org/10.1080/135048597355041PHILIP K. GRAY, STEPHEN F. GRAY Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence From The NFL Sports Betting Market, The Journal of Finance 52, no.44 (Apr 2012): 1725–1737.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb01129.xBarry K. Goodwin, Leonardo R. Corral Bettor handicapping and market efficiency in greyhound parimutuel gambling, Applied Economics 28, no.99 (Oct 2010): 1181–1190.https://doi.org/10.1080/000368496328029William H. Dare, S.Scott MacDonald A generalized model for testing the home and favorite team advantage in point spread markets, Journal of Financial Economics 40, no.22 (Feb 1996): 295–318.https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(95)00848-9Timothy J. Brailsford, Philip K. Gray, Stephen A. Easton, Stephen F. Gray The Efficiency of Australian Football Betting Markets, Australian Journal of Management 20, no.22 (Dec 1995): 167–195.https://doi.org/10.1177/031289629502000204Joseph Golec, Maurry Tamarkin Do bettors prefer long shots because they are risk-lovers, or are they just overconfident?, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 11, no.11 (Jul 1995): 51–64.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01132730FRANK A. SCOTT, O. DAVID GULLEY TESTING FOR EFFICIENCY IN LOTTO MARKETS, Economic Inquiry 33, no.22 (Apr 1995): 175–188.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01855.xDonald B. Hausch, William T. Ziemba Chapter 18 Efficiency of sports and lottery betting markets, (Jan 1995): 545–580.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(05)80062-3LINDA M. WOODLAND, BILL M. WOODLAND Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market, The Journal of Finance 49, no.11 (Apr 2012): 269–279.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04429.xNelson J Lacey, Donald R Chambers Option Wagering in Point Spread Betting Markets, The Journal of Derivatives 2, no.11 (Jan 1994): 31–37.https://doi.org/10.3905/jod.1994.407903John M. Gandar, Richard A. Zuber, Ben Russo Testing effeciency in Gambling markets: a comment, Applied Economics 25, no.77 (May 2006): 937–943.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000073Stephen Shmanske Human capital formation in professional sports: Evidence from the PGA tour, Atlantic Economic Journal 20, no.33 (Sep 1992): 66–80.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02300173William E. Even, Nicholas R. Noble Testing efficiency in gambling markets, Applied Economics 24, no.11 (Jul 2006): 85–88.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849200000106Hal Stern On the Probability of Winning a Football Game, The American Statistician 45, no.33 (Aug 1991): 179–183.https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.1991.10475798 Paul E. Gabriel , and James R. Marsden An Examination of Market Efficiency in British Racetrack Betting, Journal of Political Economy 98, no.44 (Oct 2015): 874–885.https://doi.org/10.1086/261710Nelson J. Lacey An estimation of market efficiency in the NFL point spread betting market, Applied Economics 22, no.11 (Jul 2006): 117–129.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849000000056Benjamin Russo, John M. Gandar, Richard A. Zuber Market rationality tests based on cross-equation restrictions, Journal of Monetary Economics 24, no.33 (Nov 1989): 455–470.https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90032-9JOHN GANDAR, RICHARD ZUBER, THOMAS O'BRIEN, BEN RUSSO Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market, The Journal of Finance 43, no.44 (Apr 2012): 995–1008.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02617.x Raymond D. Sauer , Vic Brajer , Stephen P. Ferris , and M. Wayne Marr Hold Your Bets: Another Look at the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games, Journal of Political Economy 96, no.11 (Oct 2015): 206–213.https://doi.org/10.1086/261532J. Cairns, N. Jennett, P.J. Sloane The Economics of Professional Team Sports: A Survey of Theory and Evidence, Journal of Economic Studies 13, no.11 (Jan 1986): 3–80.https://doi.org/10.1108/eb002618

Full Text
Published version (Free)

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call