Abstract
Chronic bee paralysis is a well-defined viral disease of honey bees with a global distribution that until recently caused rare but severe symptomatology including colony loss. Anecdotal evidence indicates a recent increase in virus incidence in several countries, but no mention of concomitant disease. We use government honey bee health inspection records from England and Wales to test whether chronic bee paralysis is an emerging infectious disease and investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of disease. The number of chronic bee paralysis cases increased exponentially between 2007 and 2017, demonstrating chronic bee paralysis as an emergent disease. Disease is highly clustered spatially within most years, suggesting local spread, but not between years, suggesting disease burnt out with periodic reintroduction. Apiary and county level risk factors are confirmed to include scale of beekeeping operation and the history of honey bee imports. Our findings offer epidemiological insight into this damaging emerging disease.
Highlights
Chronic bee paralysis is a well-defined viral disease of honey bees with a global distribution that until recently caused rare but severe symptomatology including colony loss
Most visits were initiated by National Bee Unit (NBU) inspectors, some were conducted in response to call-outs by beekeepers with concerns about honey bee health (~18% of visits; Supplementary Fig. 2)
Our data clearly indicate that since 2007 there has been an exponential increase in the number of cases of chronic bee paralysis in honey bee apiaries across England and Wales, providing the first report of recent disease emergence
Summary
Chronic bee paralysis is a well-defined viral disease of honey bees with a global distribution that until recently caused rare but severe symptomatology including colony loss. Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), defined as newly appearing in a population or rapidly increasing in incidence or geographic range[9], often arise from livestock or plant movements[10] Owing to their use for managed pollination and honey production, the global trade in honey bees has expanded massively[11]. We obtain observations of chronic bee paralysis from BeeBase to investigate the spread in English and Welsh apiaries over 12 years, using a combination of epidemiological analyses of the patterns of disease based on the spatiotemporal distribution of outbreaks in apiaries and in counties We use this analytical framework to test the hypothesis that chronic bee paralysis is an emergent disease, quantify the spatial dependency of risk and investigate county-level risk factors associated with the underlying epidemiology
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