Choosing Wisely between Radiotherapy Dose-Fractionation Schedules: The Molecular Graded Prognostic Assessment (molGPA) for Elderly Glioblastoma (eGBM-molGPA)

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a graded prognostic assessment (GPA) model integrating genomic characteristics in patients with elderly glioblastoma (eGBM), and compare the efficacy between conventionally fractionated radiotherapy (CFRT) vs. hypofractionated radiotherapy (HFRT) in each risk group. Patients aged ≥65 years who underwent surgical resection followed by radiotherapy (RT) with or without temozolomide (TMZ) for newly diagnosed IDH-wildtype eGBM between 2006 and 2021 were included in this multicenter cohort study. Patients who were planned for a ≥6-week or ≤4-week radiotherapy were regarded as being treated with CFRT or HFRT, respectively. Based on the prognostic factors significantly identified through multivariate analysis for overall survival (OS), we developed the molecular GPA for eGBM (eGBM-molGPA) and assigned 0.0, 0.5, and 1.0 points in proportion to the corresponding hazard ratio (HR) of each factor. Then, the survival outcomes by treatment groups were evaluated according to the eGBM-molGPA scores. A total of 334 and 239 patients who underwent CFRT and HFRT were included, respectively, and 86% of patients were treated with TMZ-based chemoradiation. With a median follow-up of 17.4 months for survivors, the median OS was 18.7 months for CFRT plus TMZ group, 15.1 months for HFRT plus TMZ group, and 10.4 months for RT alone group, respectively (all p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, Karnofsky performance scale, surgical extent, TMZ, and the methylation status of the MGMT promoter were identified as strong prognostic factors for OS, with an estimated HR of greater than 1.5 (all p<0.001). Additionally, subventricular zone involvement, temporalis muscle thickness, RT regimen, and the mutation status of TERT promoter and TP53 gene were found to be significant prognostic factors for OS, with an estimated HR of less than 1.5. The eGBM-molGPA was established based on these prognostic factors (Table 1) and patients were allocated to three risk groups, which included high risk (total score of 3.0-4.5), intermediate risk (1.5-2.5), and low risk (0.0-1.0). Patients treated with CFRT plus TMZ had significantly improved OS compared to those treated with HFRT plus TMZ or RT alone in the low and intermediate risk groups (p<0.001). However, in the high-risk group, there was no significant difference in OS between treatment options (p = 0.770). CFRT plus TMZ can be a more effective strategy for selected eGBM patients compared to HFRT. For high-risk patients, a protracted treatment schedule might not be beneficial. The novel eGBM-molGPA can be used as a clinical tool for choosing wisely among treatment options. Further prospective studies are warranted to establish optimal RT guidelines for eGBM patients.