Chinese Perspectives on Nuclear Arms Control

Abstract

China`s nuclear weapons and Beijing`s arms control policies have become increasingly important factors in the post-Cold War era of U.S.-Russian strategic arms reductions and growing concern about proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Unlike Russia and the United States, China is not constrained by any international arms control regime from modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces. In addition, the Chinese nuclear arsenal, the quality of which is likely to be significantly enhanced over the coming decade, will be an increasingly important strategic factor in regional and global security as China`s nuclear weapons more closely match the capabilities of U.S. and Russian nuclear forces. Concern about Beijing`s nuclear capability has also been heightened by China`s rapid emergence as a major power with a huge economy, able to underwrite an extensive nuclear arms buildup in the next century should Chinese leaders choose to do so. Uncertainty about China`s nuclear weapons capabilities, it strategic intentions, and the long-run goals of its nuclear modernization program is exacerbated by China`s lack of transparency in the military sphere. In addition, unofficial contacts between scientists, arms and control experts, and foreign policy institute researchers can be encouraged. The concrete impact on Chinese thinking of past arms controlmore » discussions between Chinese and Americans is evidenced by Beijing`s decision to join the NPT and by Beijing`s support for permanent extension of the NPT. The strengthening of a Western-influenced arms control community in China could affect thinking in Beijing on a broad range of international arms control issues, from non-proliferation to confidence-building measures and greater military transparency in Asia, and foster movement in China toward taking more responsibility for maintaining international peace and stability. 43 refs.« less