Chinese Acquisition of the Spratly Archipelago and Its Implications for the Future

Abstract

In this study, I first examine the place of the Spratly Islands dispute at the heart of interstate relations between China and its regional neighbors around the South China Sea. In doing so, I trace the varied historical claims and periodic disputes over the archipelago, along with the current state of affairs, which is increasingly dominated by the need for more and cheaper sources of oil and natural gas. This background lays the groundwork for the core of this study, which is a simulation analysis looking at the potential ramifications of a more aggressive Chinese position in the South China Sea. Using computer simulation techniques, I compare the desirability of two scenarios related to Chinese policy in the area. The findings suggest that a more aggressive Chinese policy on the Spratlys would be beneficial in some ways, especially in the areas of energy production and imports over the following forty years. At the same time, there are several potential drawbacks as well, including increased environmental degradation and renewed energy supply problems in the second half of the century. I conclude by examining the implications of both conflictual and peaceful Chinese approaches to policy in the South China Sea, in light of China's obvious ascension as the leading state in East and Southeast Asia, as well as its rapidly improving global position.