Abstract
The turnover of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership at the 18th Party Congress provides an opportune time to examine the future of US-China relations. Characterized by a blend of competition and cooperation, this relationship generally has been stable. The South China Sea (SCS) dispute, however, has the potential to fracture the relationship partly because of China’s conflict with the Philippines, a close American ally, over the Spratly/Nansha Islands. A study of the Spratly/Nansha Islands dispute provides one way to weigh the prospective impact of China’s leadership transition on China-Philippines-US relations and thus China-US relations. This article contends China’s leadership transition exacerbates the dispute and creates problems for China-Philippines and China-US relations, but that domestic and international interests will drive China and the US to contain the risk of serious conflict.
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