China’s Industrialization and the Pathway of Industrial CO2 Emissions

Abstract

Industrial sector is the largest CO2 emission sector in China, thus the peak of China’s total CO2 emissions relies heavily on its industrial sector. After rapid industrialization during the last three decades, China now is between the intermediate and the late industrialization stage in general. Looking at the production and emission structures of China’s industries, especially the heavy and chemical industrial sectors which are energy- and emission-intensive industries, we claim that the output of these heavy and chemical industries will peak at around 2020, the industrialization process will complete at around 2025 and after that, China will enter the post-industrialization era. According to the CO2 emission pathways of developed countries during their industrialization, i.e. the so-called “Carbon Kuznets Curve”, and based on the characteristics of China’s industrialization and urbanization process, it is estimated that the CO2 emissions from the industrial sector will keep rising over time and reach its peak at around the year 2040 in the business-as-usual scenario; while in the low-carbon scenario, it will peak between 2025 and 2030 and decline after the year 2040.