China’s Energy Transition with the Scenario of Carbon Neutrality, Outlook by 2060

Abstract

AbstractThe joint efforts of all countries are required to cope with climate change. It is an important mission entrusted by the times to the energy sector for China to achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 and promote the construction of ecological civilization. In this paper, firstly, the current situation of China’s energy structure and the difficulties in realizing carbon neutrality were combed, and the technical route and path for realizing carbon neutrality were analyzed. On this basis, the China Energy System Model (CEMS) developed by IQTE was adopted to integrate various technological paths and their development scenarios into the overall energy system to conduct the scenario analysis. Three scenarios were simulated, including the basic scenario based on conventional technological progress, the high renewable scenario based on high proportion of renewable energy, the substitution scenario of coal with high energy efficiency and high renewable green methanol in end use based on fast energy efficiency improvement, high renewable energy proportion, end-use coal substitution and the development of green methanol. The results show that the goal of carbon neutrality before 2060 can only be achieved in the third scenario. Finally, some policy recommendations on how to realize carbon neutrality are put forward, including vigorously developing carbon neutral technology system, accelerating energy transition, replacing coal and realizing large-scale commercialization of non-carbon energy.KeywordsCarbon neutralityEnergy transitionChina energyChina energy system modelCarbon cycle