China-Led Globalization? Understanding and Making Policy for Risk in China's Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive program of funding and construction that weaves trade and infrastructure connections across 70 countries, has the potential of reshaping globalization and ushering in a new era of South-South cooperation. However, whilst recognizing these opportunities this paper will focus on the risks relative to potential benefits of the scheme and will set out a project of research investigating risk at local, national and international scales, which forms part of a Regional Studies Association Policy Expo. The aim of this research is to develop a meaningful index measuring risk for the 70-90 BRI countries and to evaluate the factors that affect this risk index. Using data on over 200 Chinese and non-Chinese cities along or near the Belt and Road, we will explore the factors that render some cities more prepared to take part in BRI. We also plan to use three case studies of BRI projects to illustrate how opportunities and risks interact to produce varied outcomes in terms of cross-border regional cooperation. The project will also seek to communicate the implications and lessons derived from this integrated analysis to the policy community that is developing across the different sectors and spaces of the Belt and Road Initiative.