China's money demand in a cointegrating vector error correction model

Abstract

This paper estimates open-economy macroeconomic models of the Chinese economy allowing for the structural change caused by the 1992 reforms. Unrestricted vector autoregressions, VARs, and cointegrating vector error correction models, VECMs, are estimated on quarterly data for the early reform period 1980–1992, and the late reform period, 1993–2018. Two long-run cointegrating vectors are identified, which can be interpreted as a long-run, money demand function and a long-run IS type income equation driven by export demand. The 1992 reforms involved a move to a more market oriented system and a transformation of financial institutions and this seems to be responsible for a change in the direction of effect of interest rates in both the IS and LM relationships.