Money demand and black market exchange rate: a cointegration approach with structural break

Abstract

This paper examines different specifications of the money demand function by including both black market exchange rate and oil prices as additional variables in Syria for the period 1990Q1-2009Q4. In order to test the stability of the proposed money demand function specifications, we apply the cointegration approach with structural breaks. The empirical results provide strong evidence for the existence of a stable long run relationship with shift in the cointegration vector. In particular, we found that 28% of the money demand adjustment, following a short-run shock, occurs in the following period. Moreover, the results show that the two additional variables, black market exchange rate and the oil price, play a vital role in determining the money demand in Syria.