China's military posture and the new economic geopolitics

Abstract

China's increasing energy needs have underscored four questions concerning Beijing's military posture and strategic intentions. How will China guarantee its most vital sources of energy supply, especially those that depend on the free flow of goods through international shipping routes? Does China possess the naval capability to secure sea-lines of communication? Is such a capability at the centre of its future naval planning? Can China's missile capabilities be used to intimidate international shipping? The link between China's historic use of force and resource considerations is tenuous. The particular case of the South China Sea has been inflated by many analysts into a more significant case study of Chinese strategic behaviour than it actually merits. Chinese strategic interests in resource supply are not incompatible with US hegemony. Indeed, an American draw-down in the Pacific is a greater threat to the stability of Asia's energy markets than any potential Chinese challenge to the status quo.