China's dietary transition and its impact on cropland demand for sustainable agriculture

Abstract

China's rapid economic development and urbanization have significantly shifted dietary patterns, increasing stress on cropland. This study addresses the need to quantify cropland demand under different dietary scenarios using the latest consistent, balanced, and physical Food and Agriculture Biomass Input–Output dataset for China (FABIO-CHN) dataset, which offers the highest sectorial resolution for agricultural products. Employing an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EE-MRIO) analysis, we estimated domestic cropland demand driven by various dietary patterns, including food consumption away from home and food waste. We found that most dietary patterns would increase China's domestic cropland demand except the EAT-Lancet diet and the Japanese diet, ranging from −7.0 Mha to 55.2 Mha. However, the cropland footprint demand for meat and grain consumption would decrease for all scenarios, with values between −44.8 Mha and − 5.8 Mha for meat consumption while −12.2 Mha and − 3.3 Mha for grain consumption. The current average diet in China aligns more closely with the Japanese or Mediterranean diet. However, changes in cropland demand would vary from province due to diverse dietary structures. For instance, the per-capita cropland footprint is highest in Tibet and Qinghai due to traditional meat-rich diets. Our findings highlight the critical need for region-specific dietary guidelines and contributions to global sustainability challenges such as agricultural land expansion, and food security. While shifting toward more plant-based diets like the EAT-Lancet or Japanese diet could mitigate cropland stress, tailored policies considering regional dietary habits and promoting sustainable agricultural practices are essential for supporting China's dietary transition and sustainable cropland use.