China's climate ambition: Revisiting its First Nationally Determined Contribution and centering a just transition to clean energy

Abstract

In 2016 and as part of its commitment under the 2015 Paris Agreement, China submitted its First Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), outlining its ‘best efforts’ to limit greenhouse gas emissions. In 2017, the country accounted for 26% of global carbon emissions, stemming mostly from coal-based electricity generation and mining. The United States, by comparison, accounted for nearly 14%, and the European Union, almost 10%. In view of this disparity and the significance of China's contribution to achieving global emissions targets and sustainability, we revisit its First NDC. We argue that, while China is set to meet its non-fossil fuel targets, progress on its fossil fuel targets is stymied by continual coal development, which has negative implications for the Paris 2 °C limit. We contend that the country's focus on carbon-intensive economic expansion is a major barrier to greater climate ambition, especially when considering its growing portfolio of overseas investments in fossil fuel-dependent sectors. In bringing together disparate arguments from across the energy policy literature and looking ahead to its Second NDC, we conclude by making four recommendations for increasing China's climate ambition and centering a just transition to clean energy.