China's carbon emissions and energy demand under different methods of global mitigation cooperation: Application of an extended RICE model with energy details

Abstract

This study extends the classic RICE model by introducing energy factors into the economic module and comprehensively describes different types of energy demands. Taking China as an example, we constructed the RICE-China model and further explored the impact of different cooperation methods on China's carbon emissions and energy demand. The main results are as follows. First, there are significant differences in China's emission reduction under different cooperation scenarios. In the Lindahl cooperation scenario, China's carbon emissions in 2100 have reduced by 90.5 % to achieve the two-degree goal, which is lower than the utilitarian cooperation scenario. Second, the decline in China's fossil energy under the utilitarian scenario is higher than that under the Lindal scenario. Specifically, China's fossil energy demand decreased by 91.4 % in 2100 under the Lindal scenario, with non-fossil energy accounting for 94.7 % of total energy consumption. Third, China's emission reduction in the later period under the RICE-China model is lower than that of the RICE model, and the corresponding GDP loss has also decreased. Specifically, China's GDP losses under the RICE-China model are approximately 1.5–2.8% points lower than those under the RICE model. This study provides new insights for China to participate in international climate cooperation.