China macroeconomic report 2020: China’s macroeconomy is on the rebound under the impact of COVID-19

Abstract

The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history of China’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught of COVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy and its market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World War II. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China was the first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, and to resume work and production. China’s economic recovery and reconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for the global economy. The content of this report mainly includes the following two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend and recovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of the epidemic; the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- to long-term development. We focus on four issues: the progress and nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage; major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery in the next stage; how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects; and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges, to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. In view of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect of China’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forward policy recommendations accordingly.