Characterizing CONUS-wide spatio-temporal changes in daily precipitation, flow, and variability of extremes

Abstract

The hydrological cycle strongly relies on the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation, which has been considerably affected by climate change. Focusing on CONUS, this research extended the analysis by evaluating the variability of daily concentrations of various components of the hydrological cycle in terms of the Gini index and its potential effects on floods and droughts by integrating historical data with an existing database of extreme events. Differences were found in the geographical location of significant correlations among the hydrological variables investigated, implying that the impacts of variability are neither spatially nor temporally uniform. The work also showed the importance of selecting thresholds of precipitation and flow to define “extreme” events. We identified a precipitation deficit threshold at the 5th percentile and an extreme precipitation threshold at the 95th percentile as the most representative. Moreover, for flood, the 95th percentile and for hydrological drought, the 5th percentile were the most representative. Spatially the study showed that, the concentration of precipitation deficit and evapotranspiration had a major impact on the occurrence of hydrological hazards, such as droughts and floods.