Characterization of unknown unknowns using separation principles in case study on Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Abstract

Unidentified risks, also known as unknown unknowns, have traditionally been underemphasized by risk management. Most unknown unknowns are believed to be impossible to find or imagine in advance. But this study reveals that many are not truly unidentifiable. This study develops a model using separation principles of the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (whose Russian acronym is TRIZ) to explain the mechanism that makes some risks hard to find in advance and show potential areas for identifying hidden risks. The separation principles used in the model are separation by time, separation by space, separation upon condition, separation between parts and whole, and separation by perspective. It shows that some risks are hard to identify because of hidden assumptions and illustrates how separation principles can be used to formulate assumptions behind what is already known, show how the assumptions can be broken, and thus identify hidden risks. A case study illustrates how the model can be applied to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and explains why some risks in the oil rig, which were identified after the incident, were not identified in advance.