Abstract
Over the last years, Brazil has appeared among the new tropical wine producing countries. The joined effect of rising air temperature and decreasing precipitation makes it important to quantify the trend of the thermohydrological conditions of the commercial vineyards. The aims of the current research were to classify and delimit these conditions for the winemaking processes under different time scenarios in the Brazilian Northeastern region. Bioclimatic indicators were used together with long-term weather data and projections of the IPCC emission scenarios under simulated pruning dates. The results showed that decreasing of precipitation should be good for wine production when irrigation water is available, but rising air temperature will affect the wine quality and stability mainly for pruning done from November to March. The best pruning periods are around May for any time scenario considered. In general, more care should be taken for pruning happening in other periods of the year, regarding the effect of increasing thermal conditions on wine quality. The classification and delimitation done, joined with other ecological characteristics, are important for a rational planning of the commercial wine production expansion, mainly in situations of climate and land use changes together with rising water competition.
Highlights
Long-term observations and models are showing pieces of evidence of alterations in the climate system happening in several places of the world, which can be attributed to human activities
The available monthly total precipitation data were from SUDENE (Superintendence of Development of the Northeast) referred to 1455 locations of rain gauges, while the monthly mean air temperature data were from INMET (National Meteorological Institute) recorded in 75 conventional stations
The lowest TGS values occur at the winter solstice time in the Southern hemisphere, while the highest ones are found when the Sun is around the zenith position over the central part of the Brazilian Northeastern region
Summary
Long-term observations and models are showing pieces of evidence of alterations in the climate system happening in several places of the world, which can be attributed to human activities. These effects are mainly consequences of changes in the atmospheric composition and global average air temperature is projected to rise together with regional variations in precipitation patterns [1, 2]. Wine quality, and yield are very dependent on climate at regional, local, and microclimatic scales [3]. Rising air temperature contributes to high sugar concentration in grapes, resulting in larger alcohol content in wines and lower acidity, increasing pH. The presence, intensity and quality of the aroma, colour, and wine stability may be affected negatively [9, 10]
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