Abstract
Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information.
Highlights
The lifetime of an electronic device is generally estimated by conducting a whole lifetime test on a batch of device samples to calculate the statistical reliability of these samples
The weight of each sample was defined by the relative probability density (PD) of its parameters, which was derived by estimating the probability density functions (PDFs) for these parameters
This study proposed models for the relationships between the initial parameter information and lifetimes of several samples of an electronic device when the levels of benefit, cost, and moderate parameters were appropriate and stable
Summary
The lifetime of an electronic device is generally estimated by conducting a whole lifetime test on a batch of device samples to calculate the statistical reliability of these samples. Based on the measurability of the super-path time and pick-up time of relays, Zhai et al developed a time-series mathematical model that used both variables to predict the lifetime of electronics [18] This model-based prediction method examines the physical characteristics of electrical systems to illustrate the nature of the systems and enable the real-time prediction of their lifetime. The aforementioned studies, which examined the performance parameters of electronics over their lifetimes, used estimation methods to establish models explaining the relationship between the lifetime and the degradation of the parameters [30,31,32] Some of these parameters, when in application, may yield highly uncertain and incomplete data, which can add considerable difficulty to lifetime prediction. Initial parameter information that contains such defects can be identified and the values and stability of the parameters be quantitatively analyzed to model the relationship of parameter value and stability with lifetime, thereby providing a new approach to predict the lifetime of the device
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