Abstract
End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM) under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD) and extreme rainfall (R95P) than consecutive dry days (CDD), wet days (R10), and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5). Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana). Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean).
Highlights
Model studies of Caribbean climate change have typically assessed changes in the mean state of some key variables
Future regional projections have been examined for surface temperature, rainfall, wind and wind shear, sea level rise, and sea surface temperature for the middle to end of century [3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13]
The results suggest increases in annual and seasonal land and ocean surface temperatures of 0.6 to 4.0∘C; annual changes in rainfall ranging between −50 and +13.7% with a robust summer drying; higher vertical wind shear but lower than 8 m/s during May to November; and sea level rise of approximately 18 to 59 cm, with indication of more pronounced levels due to improved model representation of polar dynamics and because of the Caribbean’s proximity to the equator
Summary
Model studies of Caribbean climate change have typically assessed changes in the mean state of some key variables This approach is consistent with the initial pattern of studies done globally [1, 2]. Reference [15] suggests an increase in the frequency of hot days and night and decreases in frequency of cool days and cool nights and in the proportion of total rainfall that is obtained in heavy events over Caribbean islands by the 2080s under multiple SRES scenarios. They used global climate models (GCMs) regridded to a 2.5∘× 2.5∘ lat/lon grid.
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