Characteristics of Climate Change in Poyang Lake Basin and Its Impact on Net Primary Productivity

Abstract

Climate change exerts substantial impacts on human society and the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional climate change and its impact on carbon sequestration is an important topic in ecology and environmental science. This study utilized meteorological and land use/cover data to explore these dynamics. Statistical methods such as the Mann–Kendall (M-K) test and wavelet analysis were used to simulate the changes in annual average temperature and precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin from 1980 to 2020. The Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model was used to estimate the interannual variation in net primary productivity (NPP) in the region over the past 40 years. Additionally, the present study examined the influence of various factors on NPP changes. The main results are as follows: (1) Over the past four decades, the average temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin was 17.85 °C, while the average precipitation was 1621.35 mm. The average annual temperature rises at a rate of 0.27 °C per decade. (2) A significant shift in the average annual temperature occurred in the early 21st century, and annual precipitation exhibited multiple abrupt changes during the mid-to-late 1990s. Both temperature and precipitation changes follow a 25-year cycle, with temperature hotspots located in the south and precipitation hotspots in the northeast. (3) The impact of climate change on the change in NPP in the Poyang Lake Basin is about 70%, with the annual average temperature having a significant effect on the increase in NPP. This study can provide a scientific foundation for formulating policies aimed at mitigating climate-related disasters and enhancing carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems.