Characteristics of Australian droughts under enhanced greenhouse conditions: Results from 14 global climate models

Abstract

This paper presents characteristics of droughts simulated by global climate models (GCMs) under enhanced greenhouse gases conditions. We used a drought index called the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) which takes both rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into account to investigate variations of droughts among 12 regions in Australia. The RDI was applied to simulated climate variables from 14 GCMs performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. The results show a general increase in drought areal extent and/or frequency for most regions. However, the increases are not significant over the North West, North Queensland, Queensland East Coast and Central Queensland. For most regions, the change beyond 2030 is larger than that prior to 2030, but the uncertainty in the projections also increases with time. By 2030, there is a likely (>66% probability) risk of twice or more drought affected area and/or twice as often drought frequency over South West Western Australia. By 2050, this will include the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia and Victoria, and by 2070 this will extend to New South Wales and Tasmania. For North Queensland such a risk is unlikely (<33% probability) for the next 100 years. This information can be considered indicative in long-term planning focussing on sustainability.