Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Population Migration under Different Population Agglomeration Patterns—A Case Study of Urban Agglomeration in China

Abstract

China’s urban agglomerations (UAs) are striving to build a new development pattern oriented towards the new era and new stage, and the population distribution is facing new problems of synergy with the layout of labor factor productivity and regional coordinated development. Therefore, this study couples UAs with population distribution, using data from three population censuses and nighttime light data in 2000, 2010, and 2020, to measure the population agglomeration patterns of Chinese UAs using population agglomeration indicators and to explore the influencing factors and spatial stratification heterogeneity characteristics by constructing an econometric model. The results show that: (1) the population agglomeration patterns of Chinese UAs can be classified into four major categories: weakly polycentric, weakly monocentric, strongly monocentric, and strongly polycentric UAs, and China’s UAs are in a low-level stage dominated by weakly polycentric UAs at present. (2) In terms of influencing factors, 15 indicators, such as economic development and social conditions, are important factors affecting the population agglomeration patterns of the four UAs, but their effects vary greatly due to specific patterns. (3) For specific agglomeration models, the total passenger volume has always been the strongest positive influencing factor for weakly polycentric UAs; the industry location entropy index, scale of fiscal expenditure, and total passenger volume in municipal districts are relatively strong positive effects to weakly monocentric UAs, the per capita GDP and urbanization rate are relatively strong positive effects to strongly monocentric UAs, and the urbanization rate is always the strongest positive effect to strongly polycentric UAs. The refined analysis of population migration in Chinese UAs in this study enriches the theoretical results related to population migration in Chinese UAs to a certain extent and provides a feasible basis for the development of new development patterns in Chinese UAs and the formulation of regional population policies in the new stage. Meanwhile, this study divided the polycentric attributes of different UAs, which provide a reference for the theoretical development of polycentric spatial structure of UAs.