Characterisation of petroleum assets for portfolio management

Abstract

There is growing use of modern portfolio management methods that integrate risks, strategic goals and optimisation techniques to aid investment decision-making in the exploration and production industry. This modern approach consists of stages of analysis that include asset analysis, strategic goals definition and portfolio selection to maximise the probability of meeting the strategic goals. To date, most work in this area has focussed on the portfolio management requirements of oil and gas operators. However, the approach has the potential to help decision-making surrounding the management of the petroleum resources of a state. Specifically, we are investigating its potential to help set fiscal terms that encourage investment whilst meeting state goals. Indonesia’s petroleum resources are used to inform and provide data for the study. This paper presents the problems identified and solutions developed in performing the first step—describing, quantifying and modelling the uncertainty in the performance of the assets that comprise the portfolio. Due to the size and heterogeneity of the portfolio, we have chosen to characterise the assets into different types, rather than model each one individually. The main benefit of characterising the assets is to make the problem tractable, particularly when it comes to optimisation. Characterisation will also provide insight to decision-maker’s about the nature of the portfolio that may impact long-term planning and setting of targets. Whilst the approach taken is motivated by the specific needs of a nation’s portfolio, it is expected that the lessons learned will be of use to operators with similar characteristics—large, heterogeneous portfolios.