Chapter 5 - High-resolution projections of the aridity in Europe under climate change

Abstract

Europe’s climate is diverse and the current climate change has certainly impacted on environmental components. The climate variables are important for several aspects with respect to landscape and natural resources. In order to define the climatic conditions, these parameters are widely used as diagnostic tools for climate indices. In this work, five climate indices (Johansson continentality index, the Kerner oceanity index, the De Martonne aridity index, Pinna combinative index, and UNEP aridity index) were analyzed at the spatial scale of Europe with the aim to produce humidity–aridity maps of the continent. The indices were explored for a climate normal period that mainly precedes the anthropogenic warming signal (1961–90) and for future periods (2011–40 and 2041–70) using the CMIP5 multimodel projections. The analyzed indices indicate the southern part of Europe to be dry, semidry, and Mediterranean climates, while the northern and elevated areas are humid to extremely humid. The South Balkan Peninsula, the Pannonian basin, central and southern Iberian Peninsula, the south of the Italian Peninsula and the Mediterranean Islands, as well as the southeastern sides of Europe experience dry climates considering all climatic indices. On the contrary, the British Isles, the Scandinavian Peninsula, the Alps, the Dinaric Alps, Pyrenees, Carpathians Mountains, and northorn Iberian Peninsula are listed as humid climates. According to the findings of the climate analysis, the continent of Europe shows significant variation between past and future, where changes up to 4% were identified for the De Martonne aridity index and 8% for the Kerner oceanity index and Pinna combinative index. The shifts in the spatial distribution of dry classes indicate that they are influenced by climate change. This study may be of benefit for scientists, policy makers in environmental domain, and for natural resources management and climate change mitigation planning.