Changes in future climate indices using Statistical Downscaling Model in the upper Baro basin of Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate indices are the diagnostic tools used to define the state of climate system. The main objective of this study was to investigate the climate index change in future time periods in the upper Baro basin of Ethiopia. The daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature data were downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The precipitation and temperature data were estimated according to UK Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) global circulation model with medium-high (A2) and medium-low emission (B2) scenarios in three future time interval periods. The De Martonne Aridity Index and Pinna Combinative Index change of the future time periods centered at 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s was computed. The analysis was based on percentage change between the baseline and three future time periods. The monthly De Martonne Aridity Index result showed that there are months in the dry season classified as semi-dry with value of less than 20 and the land needs irrigation in these months. The Pinna Combinative Index value also showed the same trend like that of the De Martonne Aridity Index and a high correlation coefficient was noticed, verifying similar trend of the two indices for the three future time period changes. Overall, humidity is expected to decrease in most of the months in the three future time periods for both A2 and B2 emission scenarios because of the increment of temperature in the future.