Chapter 4.5 - Statistical approaches to ancestry estimation: New and established methods for the quantification of cranial variation for forensic casework

Abstract

The intention of this chapter is not to discuss the concept of ancestry or provide a history of its evaluation in the field: these topics can be already found in other publications. Instead, it seeks to explain how ancestry can be assessed in forensic anthropology, with the aim of providing insight into the statistical procedures that underlie the inference of this parameter. We argue that the quantification of the results derived from any methods of ancestry assessment is of paramount importance. In an era when Daubert rules are increasingly important in forensic anthropology, providing statistical evidence, such as the probability of having the greatest affinity with or some mixture of Asian, African, or European ancestry, is critical to best practice: it constitutes a crucial step forward for rigor in forensic anthropology, as it enriches the value of the results in case reports and increases the reliability of positive identifications.