Abstract
The traditional approach to tourism demand modelling starts by constructing a simple model that is consistent with demand theory. Such a model is then estimated and tested for statistical significance. The estimated model is expected to have a high R 2 , and the coefficients are expected to be both ‘correctly’ signed and statistically significant (usually at the 5% level). In addition, the residuals from the estimated model should be properly behaved, i.e., they should be normally distributed with zero mean and constant variance.
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