Abstract

High passenger density at bus stops, at rail stations, on buses and trains is becoming a major concern to service providers as they struggle to cope with increased public transport demand. This chapter examines several effects of passenger crowding on public transport demand and supply, including impacts on operating speed, waiting time, travel time reliability, passengers' wellbeing, valuation of travel time savings, route and bus choice, and optimal levels of frequency, vehicle size and fare. Secondly, crowding externalities are estimated for rail and bus services in Sydney, in order to show the impact of crowding on the estimated value of in-vehicle time savings and demand prediction. By using a multinomial logit model, we show that if demand for a public transport service is estimated without explicit consideration of crowding as a source of disutility for passengers, demand will be overestimated if the service is designed to have a number of standees beyond a threshold. The generalisability of this finding is subject to scrutiny.

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