Chapter 2 - The Potential for Integrated Assessment and Modeling to Solve Environmental Problems: Vision, Capacity, and Direction

Abstract

This chapter suggests that teams of researchers and partners should work together to build integrated tools to analyze and represent the known processes underway, to understand the environmental problems of the 21st century. Environmental problems are caused by complex interactions among physical and human systems that demand analytical skills beyond those of a single discipline. Integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) is applied at the global level and at the local/regional level. The central role of human decisions and actions as drivers of environmental change is recognized in new IAM approaches. Various definitions of IAM and five different types of integration that are needed for the effective solution of environmental problems are also discussed. The fixture is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and the other pessimistic. The evolution of IAM and its current state are reviewed and examples of recent case studies are identified. Integrated assessment is introduced as a means to respond to the need for better indicators of sustainability. The issues of complexity and validation are recognized as complex. Communication is identified as a central issue, both internally among team members and externally with decision makers, stakeholders, and other scientists. Links with other research groups are recognized and points of shared interest are identified. The process of integrated assessment and modeling is considered as important as the product for any particular project.