Chapter 2 - Evolution and Trends of Transport Demand

Abstract

This chapter deals with the evolution and trends of demand for the various sectors of transport. First, emphasis is placed on the impact of accurate, consistent, and valid data describing as objectively as possible the transport demand of the past. The methods of collection, their characteristics, and sources of data are described both for conventional techniques and for big data sources provided by the Internet, mobile telephones, and global positioning system. Second, the evolution and trends of modal split of each transport mode for both passenger and freight traffic are surveyed over the recent decades. Third, the evolution and trends of passenger and freight air transport demand are analyzed: the factors affecting it, rates of growth, low margins of profit, cyclic fluctuations, number of passengers and tonnes carried by air, number of flight departures, demand in airports, and the rise of demand of low-cost airlines. Next comes the analysis for rail transport: the number of passengers and tonnes carried by rail, the rise and decline of railways, demand for high-speed trains, and the evolution of the global railway technologies market. Following this, there is an overview of road transport: the private car ownership index, road traffic and its fluctuations, the production of new cars, the electric car, road safety, and the number of fatalities. Similar analysis is presented for metro and tram systems. Prospects for the technology of electric cars are examined. The chapter ends with analysis of the evolution of sea transport: traffic, number of tonnes of the various products transported by sea, container traffic, and the world fleet.