Chapter 15 - Emergence and dynamics of COVID-19 and future pandemics

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caught the whole world by surprise in the late 2019 to early 2020. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2019, a major issue has been the origin of the virus and how it was transmitted to humans. This debate is still ongoing. The major problem is how emerging infectious diseases are currently dealt with. As a disease, they are considered only a medical issue. However, because an emerging disease is by definition unknown, the description of the disease is made and the characterization pattern of symptoms is observed after a delay. During that time, the virus has already spread widely. The medical approach which is the current paradigm cannot prevent a pandemic from occurring. It comes too late. Searching for pandemic viruses in the wild cannot help preventing a pandemic either because these viruses do not exist in the wild. Pandemic viruses are the result of an intrahuman evolution following primo-infection by an ancestor. Pandemic viruses evolve the same way severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants, such as the Delta variant, are evolving today. Viruses spread using the ecology and behavior of the host. The ecology and behavior of humans are simply the human society driven by societal rules. These societal rules are driving the expansion of pandemic viruses. The solution to prevent future pandemics is to address the societal dimension and organize the society accordingly. These different aspects are discussed in detail.