Abstract
The IEA's 2 degrees scenario (2DS) sets out a rapid decarbonization pathway for the transport sector in line with the global mitigation target of the Paris Agreement. In particular, bioenergy would provide 29% of the total transport final energy demand by 2060. By explicitly considering the interconnection between agricultural and biofuel markets, we explore the medium-term ability of the agricultural sector to supply the amount of bioenergy deemed necessary to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets in the transport sector. We adapt the partial equilibrium model Aglink-Cosimo and test the assumptions of the 2DS on the dynamics of agricultural markets. We address the following specific question: Given the policies and intrinsic dynamics of the agricultural sector, is the development of biofuels as envisioned by the IEA in a 2DS indeed achievable with the economic instruments considered (notably, increasing the levels of the carbon tax on transportation fuels)?
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