Chapter 1 - Some relevant issues in volcanic hazard forecasts and management of volcanic crisis

Abstract

Forecasting volcanic hazards and managing volcanic crises are extremely difficult endeavors, for reasons that span from the inherent complexity characterizing volcanic phenomena to the magnitude of the associated risks. Scientific developments as well as re-evaluations and new implementations are constantly ongoing, and the international debate on these difficult aspects is more alive than ever. A consensus on best practices concerning several aspects of the scientific approach, the role of scientists, and the most effective means of communication to stakeholders is slowly emerging. Still, many elements continue to be object of vivid discussion, and paradigms, views, and practices can differ significantly when managing real volcanic crises. Here I discuss some issues that have been relevant in the past few years’ debate on the multifaceted aspects of volcanic hazard forecasts and management of volcanic crises. Some of the elements presented here outline directions already undertaken, or identified as most needed developments, by a majority of volcano scientists and volcano observatories throughout the world. Some other elements in this presentation more closely reflect my personal views and experience, not necessarily shared by the majority of volcano scientists, that I have been developing thanks to intense interaction, continuous discussion, and extremely fruitful collaboration with many colleagues and friends from virtually every place in the world where volcanoes and volcanic hazards are a concern. Although this contribution is necessarily limited to only a few aspects among the very many that make up the international debate, the aim is that of providing a consistent picture that can be useful as a reference and a direction for further discussion and next developments.