Chaos game representation of the Dst index and prediction of geomagnetic storm events

Abstract

Abstract This paper proposes a two-dimensional chaos game representation (CGR) for the D st index. The CGR provides an effective method to characterize the multifractality of the D st time series. The probability measure of this representation is then modeled as a recurrent iterated function system in fractal theory, which leads to an algorithm for prediction of a storm event. We present an analysis and modeling of the D st time series over the period 1963–2003. The numerical results obtained indicate that the method is useful in predicting storm events one day ahead.