Changing Power Cycles and Foreign Policy Role-power Realignments: Asia, Europe, and North America

Abstract

By documenting types of foreign policy role empirically, a calculus is presented for ascertaining the nature of power-role gaps (misalignment) in contemporary world politics. As states rise or decline on their power cycles, power-role gaps emerge because of an inherent inertia in adjusting roles and responsibilities. Such gaps often remain a non-issue until squeezed to the surface of statecraft at critical points where expectations regarding future security change massively and abruptly. Power cycle theory requires mitigation of role-power gaps before they intensify (power-role equilibrium) as part of a broader conception of “dynamic equilibrium” to ensure security amidst structural change.